Hello everyone

I observe a very interesting phenomenon. I found an indicator whose value of the previous candle correlates well with the direction of the current candle. For example, if the indicator value of a candle with index 3 is greater than 0, then it is more likely that the candle with index 2 will be “green”. If less than 0, then red. Spearman’s correlation, at different stages, is from 0.7 to 0.76. It follows that at the time of the birth of the candle, if the indicator of the candle with index 1 is greater than zero, then it is more likely that the candle will be “green”. And Vice versa. Below, a graphical representation of the correlation.

I wrote an expert Advisor that has a very simple logic. At the moment of the appearance of the candle, it looks at what the indicator of the candle with the index 1 is equal to, and accordingly opens a position. When the next candle appears, it decides to leave the position or close and open in the other direction.

It would seem logical that the permanent work of the adviser, he should earn more than squander. It can be improved so that it opens a position only if the indicator shows a sufficiently large value.

The question is, why, despite the seemingly obvious, the adviser does not earn, but revolves around the initial Deposit?

## 223231

Due to the fact that even if the indicator does give a probability of the appearance of a new candle of more than 50%, the size of the candles is different and as a result, the balance does not go anywhere from 0 matozhidaniya profit. More precisely, the expectation is negative due to the spread and the balance will melt..

## rosomah

Someone wrote advisers on Pearson, Spearman and Kendall. In the standard library there are comparison functions, respectively, and in the libraries of some comrades. As always, a simple comparison is not enough. We need filters. I remember that as I screwed up the filters, I found out that the correlation coefficients themselves do not have an independent value. As always, the simple truth was confirmed-at the top to sell, at the bottom to buy, in the middle to confirm, despite any indications. Just find the range of values in the range where this coefficient works, confirm with filters that will work in the same range. And so you just have an average, because it revolves around the initial Deposit.

## canonier

Yes, it seems that way

## bas

Perhaps the indicator on the history looks into the future. He won’t be able to do it in real time.Perhaps the average trade is so small that the spread eats it up.

## tara

It will continue to revolve around the initial Deposit. This is the scalper algorithm, you need to evaluate the correspondence of its parameters to the values of TF, TP and SL. The goal is to beat the spread, so the TP should be slightly higher.

## reloaded699999

because what you see on the chart, and respectively what is “seen” by the robot through mataparae has already occurred.

## canonier

Soryan, corrected. But the question is open for discussion.

## alexeyvik

Because the grammar is lame. )))